This paper focuses attention on using probabilistic simulation to describe this stochastic nature, and adopts the sequential monte-carlo algorithm to simulate each element status in photovoltaic system, and calculating responded reliability indices 本文的重點是運用概率抽樣描述這種不確定性,采用蒙特卡羅序貫仿真對光伏發(fā)電各環(huán)節(jié)狀態(tài)進行概率模擬,并計算相關(guān)可靠性指標。
Stochastic and uncertain performance of power systems is thoroughly studied with a probabilistic simulation method in this paper . based on modeling of element failure and dispatching measures, static, dynamic and integrated securities are analyzed, and hence operation states are quantitatively classified . in probabilistic static security assessment, sequential and non-sequential monte-carlo sampling techniques are applied considering time varying parameter and constraints 本文采用概率仿真方法,深入研究了電力系統(tǒng)運行中的隨機和不確定特性,在對元件隨機故障和調(diào)度控制措施建模的基礎(chǔ)上,對系統(tǒng)的靜態(tài)安全、動態(tài)安全和綜合安全進行概率評估,建立了電力系統(tǒng)運行狀態(tài)的量化分析模型。